Plain-English notes on what happens between picking a slate and downloading your lineups.
Each player gets a median projection plus a floor and a ceiling. Football starts from expected opportunities (snaps, targets, carries) and efficiency; basketball starts from projected minutes and per-minute production. Both adjust for the matchup, the game's betting total and spread, injuries to teammates, and recent role. Floors and ceilings come from how widely a player's results have varied.
We play every slate out thousands of times (10,000 worlds by default). Outcomes are correlated the way real games are: a quarterback and his receivers rise and fall together, teammates share a limited number of shots or targets, and a blowout lifts one side and hurts the other. A lineup's score is counted in every world, so we know how often it wins, lands in the top 1% or cashes, not just its average.
Projected ownership comes from salary, value, projection, position scarcity and news. Duplicate risk estimates how many other entrants are likely to build the exact same lineup, which rises with popular players, salary left unused and common stacks.
A cash game rewards safe scores, so we favour high floors. A top-heavy tournament rewards being first, so we favour lineups that win the most simulated worlds and are less likely to be duplicated. The field size, prize share to first and your number of entries all shape which lineups make your portfolio and how much exposure each player gets.
Once a game starts, its players are locked. For the games that haven't started, we re-solve each lineup with fresh news: ruled-out players are replaced with the best eligible option that keeps the salary cap, positions and your rules intact. Locked slots never change.
DFSMax uses our own projection and ownership model. Blend averages our model with an outside market consensus, which some players prefer as a second opinion. New builds start on DFSMax, and you can switch any time.